I've been following this thread and have found it helpful. I am going through the IR-1 immigration process with my Turkish spouse. I don't speak Turkish, but I thought I would share my thoughts on the current backlog.
According to the tweet from Curtis Morrison referenced above, Ankara reduced the number of IR interviews by 69 in 10 business days (June 30th 1,411 to July 15th 1342, excluding the July 4th holiday). That is about 7 IR interviews per day. Projecting that out for the whole month of July (20 business days), they should have done around 140 IR interviews. According to the official visa statistics, they issued 167 IR/CR visas in July. At least this shows that the official monthly visa statistics roughly match what the lawyer was able to get from the Department of State (presumably through a lawsuit, which seems to be his area of expertise).
The last 5-months of monthly visa data show they have generally issued about 8.5 IR/CR visas per business day (I assume June and July are worse because staff take vacations):
April: 182 (8.6 per business day)
May: 192 (9.1 per business day)
June: 143 (6.8 per business day)
July: 167 (8.3 per business day)
August: 199 (8.6 per business day)
As a thought experiment, let's say they stopped providing new interviews on September 1, 2022. It would take them about 7.5-months to work through the backlog assuming 9 IR/CR interviews per business day. That would mean no new appointments until March 2023 for anyone who didn't currently have an interview. We know, however, that is not how it works. For example, on visajourney, there are a few people who were DQ'd in April 2022 and got appointments in June 2022. At that time, the consulate had over 1,400 backlogged appointments, but these people were still able to get an interview in 2-months (without an expedite). It clearly is not a first in, first out system.
They do not share how they prioritize cases, if they prioritize any at all. The consulate closed from March - July 2020, and then they were only open to Turkish citizens or permanent residents from Aug 2020-Nov 2021. For almost a year, however, it has been open to Turks and non-Turks. The monthly visa statistics also show that, visas issued to Turkish citizens have been a smaller share of all IR1 visas issued in Ankara. For example, from March - August 2022, only 14% of IR1 visas issued in Ankara went to Turkish citizens. From March - August 2019 (pre-COVID), it was 69%! Although this is disappointing for Turkish citizens, it makes sense because they are still catching up on all those appointments for non-Turks they couldn't do from August 2020 - November 2021. I assume for the last year or so, they have been prioritizing all the non-Turks who couldn't be processed Aug 2020 - Nov 2021.
I also wonder if more complex cases take longer to schedule. For example, if a person has had multiple previous spouses and children who are also immigrating; has lived in various countries; and/or has a complicated financial sponsor situation, does that mean they need more time to review the file before scheduling the interview? Conversely, are files per-screened and if they are less complicated, they schedule those sooner since it will take less time and effort? I have not idea but I am curious.
I am hopeful things will speed up for a few reasons. First, in general, the total number of IR/CR visas issued is above the historical average, showing they are working hard to reduce the backlog. Second, as they work through the backlog of non-Turk appointments, I assume they will have more interviews for Turks in the months ahead. Third, it is possible they are hiring more staff since they moved into a bigger building and there have been some news reports about Ankara speeding things up, but that remains to be seen. Finally, the general stance of the Biden administration is to speed things up, but I am not sure how this affects IR/CR visas (but they definitely have sped things up for other visa types).
Personally, I am hoping that for Turkish citizens or permanent residents, the average wait time will be about 3-months if you are DQ'd in January 2023. Hopefully those of you who have been DQ'd since June will see your interview in November through January.
I wish they published how many IR/CR visa packages they receive each month, not just how many they issued. If I knew that, it would be easier to calculate how long it might take to clear the backlog. If they are getting a lot of new cases per month, it will take longer to clear the backlog.