DV2026 (2026 Green Card Lotosu) Aşamaları

[metert]

Ben aciklandi sandim . Pardon

[pacaveli]

acaba kaygısızlar ailesine de çıktı mı bu green card?

[superdem22]

@pacaveli kaygısızlara çıksa Memnun çoluk çocuğu burada bırakır tek başına giderdi.

[yekta]

kcc baktı bunlar 15 er 15 er geliyor . adamlar arttırmaz tabi . ben olsam bende arttırmam

[Ross]

Hello Turkish friends from Russia!

I would like to share with you guys my simple calculations based on linear interpolation of Issued visa numbers and Derivatives rate. Look at this picture https://ibb.co/jfPcz8

Green data shows real data, yellow one is prediction. If quota for EU is around 21k then we could see 34k cutoff in the upcoming visa bulletin. All AOS and AP cases hopefully will be closed by AF, AS visas after redistribution (as said by DV4Roger). If Response rate will decrease on higher numbers, then even current is possible.

Cheers!

[erkannn]

I agree with your idea @Ross

[superdem22]

@ross Hello Ross. Welcome back. Thanks for sharing.
Backlog is our most problematic variable during visa calculation progress. First months of fiscal year bring less backlog compared to next times but still risky. For example; selectees who has current number until November (Oct+Nov) owned 146 issued last 3 months. Whereas, from Jan to April, those selectees owned 333 issued. Backlog issued visas from first months drops but next months still generate backlog. We need to include it into account. Another example, Until March issued number 10229 but last CEAC indicates 11549 issued. It means 1250 issued backlog added cummuliatively.
Shortly, issued / real id will increase due to backlog variable.
I compared this year with 2015 and 2017 issued / real id in order to see any correlation happens. Those year's issued / real id rate is very close each other month by month. So, if we guess first months issued / real id rate, we can predict the final issued / real id rate more or less.

[Ross]

@superdem22 Sayılar ile DV 2018 içinde söyledi:

Shortly, issued / real id will increase due to backlog variable.
I do not want to pay for this. Those year's issued / real id rates are very close each other month by month. So, if we guess first month issued / real id rate, we can predict the final issued / real id rate more or less.

Hi @superdem22
absolutely agree with you man. Backlog is still adding some extra numbers to the current workload and my analysis doesn't take it into account. There are a lot of other unknown variables that influence the final cutoff, such as response rate on high numbers that we don't know, quota for EU, a way of how visas will (or will not) be redistributed.

But I'm still not loosing hope with my CN ~30k. And I wish good luck all of us! Keep my fingers crossed and hope that VB will be revealed today with really HIGH cutoff. Or even maybe a miracle will happen and we will see current :)

Cheers!

[asilcenk]

Forget about all the calculations, formulas, graphs etc. just concentrate to the sky, cross your fingers and and make a wish from stars... :)

Just few more days, then all will be clear...

[yekta]

@asilcenk Sayılar ile DV 2018 içinde söyledi:

Forget about all the calculations, formulas, graphs etc. just concentrate to the sky, cross your fingers and and make a wish from stars... :)

all is well .. diyerek dolaşıyorum artık :))

[asilcenk]

@yekta yapacak bir şey yok, iyi düşün iyi olsun felsefesi her zaman huzur verir... :)
Senin için zaten bu iş bitmiş rahat ol, sende sıra alamaz isen yakarız bu gezegeni :)

[sheyma]

Current olma derken neden bahsediyorsunuz arkadaşlar

[northfield]

selamlar. Ross'un tablosuna göre (yanlış anlamadıysam) 19500 vize verilirse 29kler vize alıyor gözüküyor. Fakat daha önce data paylaşan diğer arkadaşlar 19500 vize verilirse 26kleri bile görmeyeceğini söylemişlerdi. İki data arasındaki bu büyük farkı sadece DR'e mi bağlıyorsunuz?

[northfield]

@sheyma current olma, tüm numaraların aktif olacağı anlamına geliyor.

[metert]

vallaha herkes kendince bir şeyler katmaya çalışıyor. hangisi tutar bilemiyoruz tabi . ama gönlümüzden geçen en yüksek cnnin açıklanması tabikii

[superdem22]

Ross'un tablosu lineer ilerliyor. Halbuki data100% lineer değil. Son ceac verilerinde ekim ve haziran arasında oran farkı var ve ama asıl neden backlog etkisi

[metert]

backlog hala yüksek mi ? soın verilere geldiyse baktınızmı

[yekta]

son datalar açıklandı . analizleri alalım :))

[Ross]

Hi @northfield
As was explained by @superdem22 not all factors have been taken into account there, e.g. backlog influence on current workflow. So, my numbers are quite more optimistic. I think you guys had more precise calculations here on the forum. So, please treat my calculation as a very simple model and rather optimistic one.

[northfield]

@ross thanks for the clarification. Although your prediction seems very optimistic, it's been generated in consideration of real data, isn't it? So, it is not far from the reality. I DO prefer considering a mix of yours and the other tables so that I keep myself hopeful.
By the way, I trust the solar eclipse which will take place tomorrow. :)