Ross tarafından gönderilen iletiler

Hi @northfield
As was explained by @superdem22 not all factors have been taken into account there, e.g. backlog influence on current workflow. So, my numbers are quite more optimistic. I think you guys had more precise calculations here on the forum. So, please treat my calculation as a very simple model and rather optimistic one.

@superdem22 Sayılar ile DV 2018 içinde söyledi:

Shortly, issued / real id will increase due to backlog variable.
I do not want to pay for this. Those year's issued / real id rates are very close each other month by month. So, if we guess first month issued / real id rate, we can predict the final issued / real id rate more or less.

Hi @superdem22
absolutely agree with you man. Backlog is still adding some extra numbers to the current workload and my analysis doesn't take it into account. There are a lot of other unknown variables that influence the final cutoff, such as response rate on high numbers that we don't know, quota for EU, a way of how visas will (or will not) be redistributed.

But I'm still not loosing hope with my CN ~30k. And I wish good luck all of us! Keep my fingers crossed and hope that VB will be revealed today with really HIGH cutoff. Or even maybe a miracle will happen and we will see current

Cheers!

Hello Turkish friends from Russia!

I would like to share with you guys my simple calculations based on linear interpolation of Issued visa numbers and Derivatives rate. Look at this picture https://ibb.co/jfPcz8

Green data shows real data, yellow one is prediction. If quota for EU is around 21k then we could see 34k cutoff in the upcoming visa bulletin. All AOS and AP cases hopefully will be closed by AF, AS visas after redistribution (as said by DV4Roger). If Response rate will decrease on higher numbers, then even current is possible.

Cheers!

Thanks guys for warm welcome:) Our audience has been split into optimists and pessimists. Pessimists have already given up and stopped to comment, they think that the final cut off will be around 23k-24k, they also believe that quota for EU is 18300 as was calculated by BritSimon or 19500 as was further calculated by dv4roger, and it will not be increased. But optimistic guys believe that KCC and VO aim to give visas as closer to 50k as possible and all needed conditions for redistribution have been created, means that AS and AF went current and before publication of last visa bulletin KCC will know how many visas they can share with EU. I personally believe in a big step in the next bulletin. Let's wait and see and keep our fingers crossed

Cheers from Russia!

@metert Hi, I'm from Russian forum. We've seen your message guys, we also discussed an idea to send email messages to KCC asking them to redistribute extra visas to EU region from AF, AS, NACARA. Many of us have sent such email and got standard replies. Your message on forum came after this discussion, so there were no comments on it, because this wasn't something new.

My number is 27xxx and I haven't lost hope. All depends on redistribution, and nobody knows how KCC will behave. I wish all of us good luck!